Week Ahead – It’s March Madness

March Madness extended beyond the NCAA Basketball Tournament to the stock market last week. The madness came in the form of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement. I questioned the Fed’s reasoning and whether it had gone too far and was putting its credibility in jeopardy, and the market at risk as a result. This week, I expect the market to continue to build steam off the Fed rate inaction and expected ongoing dovishness; plus I’m looking for some sort of accord between Greece and its German led EU compatriots. There’s a slew of economic data on the slate too for you to chew on, as well as a few interesting earnings reports, so please do keep reading. Follow our Wall Street blog for regular market reviews.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Last week’s market action was dictated by the soft Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Statement. Tension had built ahead of the report on anticipation of the removal of the cautionary language restraining rate hike action. That language, namely the word “patient”, was removed, but it was replaced by a paragraph of assertion and some curious reasoning why the Fed won’t act in April or likely anytime soon. The Fed is clearly preoccupied with the strength of the dollar. This allowed stocks to enjoy a bit of a relief rally as the dollar declined. Commodities mostly moved higher; but a big reported crude oil inventory build led oil lower on the week.

Security	Last Week
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+2.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+1.9%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+3.0%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	+2.4%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	-2.4%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)	+0.8%
PowerShares US $ Bull (NYSE: UUP)	-2.5%

The Week Ahead

It will be interesting to see if last week’s post-Fed trading carries through to this week. Despite the Fed’s sidestepping of the rate issue, after the initial rally some doubt found its way back into stocks the day after the release. Still, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) ended Friday up another 0.9%. The week ahead will be largely directed by what happens between Greece and Germany. I expect tension around the Greek / euro-zone issue will also be resolved and allow stocks to rally further. I would not give too much credit to the economic data schedule this week, as this Fed factor weighs far heavier than anything else today. Stocks resume their rise and begin to build steam in my opinion.

Economic Report Schedule

The week’s data is not negligible. Chicago Fed National Activity starts the week’s data flow and the GDP revision closes it. The GDP revision is the last such adjustment and not much change should occur as a result. Last time around, GDP growth was cut down to 2.2% for Q4 2014. Chicago Fed NAI is expected to hang around the same level, which offers little to rally around. But let’s remember that bad news is good news now around the economic data because it helps keep the Fed sidelined.

Existing and New Home Sales data will be reported this week. Housing has not enthused much, but housing stocks are on the move thanks to high expectations about the spring selling season and the still low rate environment.

Durable Goods Orders fluctuate wildly due to the high ticket prices of planes, trains and automobiles. Look for the ex-transportation measure for a better read of real economic activity. Economists expect this data point will remain modestly positive.

Last week’s crude oil inventory build was huge, and made up for a soft period the week before. It helped to sink oil prices down to their lowest yet. What happens in the energy market this week will depend greatly on the weekly report from the EIA due on Wednesday. However, at any moment now we could see OPEC step in with an emergency meeting and production cut. I would be a buyer of energy here.

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected
MONDAY
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	0.13	0.15
Existing Home Sales	4.82 M	4.94 M
Fed’s Mester Speaks
Fed’s Williams Speaks
Fed’s Fischer Speaks
Greek PM Meets w/ Merkel
TUESDAY
Consumer Price Index	-0.7%	+0.2%
-Core CPI	+0.2%	+0.1%
New Home Sales	481K	462K
FHFA House Price Index	0.8%	0.5%
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash	54.3	54.7
Richmond Fed Index	0	2
Redbook Store Sales	2.7%
Bullard Speaks
Senate Committee Regional Banking
WEDNESDAY
Durable Goods Orders	2.8%	0.7%
-Ex-Transportation	0.3%	0.3%
Mortgage Activity	-3.9%
EIA Petroleum Status
-Crude Oil Inventory	9.6 MB
-Gasoline Inventory	-4.5 MB
Evans Speaks
THURSDAY
Weekly Jobless Claims	291K	293K
PMI Services Flash	57.0	57.0
Kansas City Fed Mgf. Index	1	0
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	44.2
EIA Natural Gas Report	-45 bcf
Lockhart Speaks
Bullard Speaks
FRIDAY
GDP Report	2.2%	2.4%
Corporate Profits
Consumer Sentiment	91.2%

EPS Reports

We are in a relatively quiet period before the start of Q1 earnings season. Look for reports this week from Steelcase (NYSE: SCS), because it is a good barometer of corporate spending. Some of the others that will garner investor attention include Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), Restoration Hardware (NYSE RH), GameStop (NYSE: GME) and Lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU). I have my eye on another company, which I would rather not yet reveal. Follow my blog for more on this fantastic idea this week.

EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
MONDAY
Neogen	Nasdaq: NEON
Akers Biosciences	Nasdaq: AKER
Body Central	Nasdaq: BODY
China Finance Online	Nasdaq: JRJC
China Recycling Energy	Nasdaq: CREG
Coherus Biosciences	Nasdaq: CHRS
Concord Medical Services	NYSE: CCM
Digital Ally	Nasdaq: DGLY
Flexion Therapeutics	Nasdaq: FLXN
FMSA Holdings	Nasdaq: FMSA
iDreamSky Technology	Nasdaq: DSKY
KCAP Financial	Nasdaq: KCAP
Luby’s	NYSE: LUB
Neogen	Nasdaq: NEOG
Sabine Oil & Gas	Nasdaq: SOGC
Sinovac Biotech	NYSE: SVA
Swisher Hygiene	Nasdaq: SWSH
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical	Nasdaq: RARE
Veritiv	Nasdaq: VRTV
TUESDAY
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: AMPH
Christopher & Banks	NYSE: CBK
Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: CYCC
Dipexium Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: DPRX
E Commerce China Dangdang	NYSE: DANG
G-III Apparel Group	Nasdaq: GIII
GenVec	Nasdaq: GNVC
H.B. Fuller	NYSE: FUL
HD Supply	NYSE: HDS
IHS Inc.	NYSE: HIS
Intellicheck Mobilisa	NYSE: IDN
McCormick & Co.	NYSE: MKC
Movado	NYSE: MOV
NephroGenex	NYSE: NRX
Sonic	Nasdaq: SONC
Steelcase	NYSE: SCS
WSI Industries	Nasdaq: WSCI
WEDNESDAY
Affimed	Nasdaq: AFMD
Apollo Education	Nasdaq: APOL
China Mobile Games & Ent.	Nasdaq: CMGE
Dermira	Nasdaq: DERM
Destination XL Group	Nasdaq: DXLG
Five Below	Nasdaq: FIVE
Francesca’s Holdings	Nasdaq: FRAN
Iao Kun Group	Nasdaq: IKGH
Kingstone Companies	Nasdaq: KINS
Leidos Holdings	Nasdaq: LDOS
Lindsay	NYSE: LNN
LiqTech Int’l	Nasdaq: LIQT
Monogram Residential Trust	Nasdaq: MORE
On Track Innovations	Nasdaq: OTIV
Orient Paper	NYSE: ONP
Pacific Sunwear	Nasdaq: PSUN
Paychex	Nasdaq: PAYX
Progress Software	Nasdaq: PRGS
PVH Corp.	NYSE: PVH
Red Hat	NYSE: RHT
REX American Resources	NYSE: REX
USD Partners	Nasdaq: USDP
Vascular Biogenics	Nasdaq: VBLT
Verint Systems	Nasdaq: VRNT
Worthington Industries	NYSE: WOR
Yingli Green Energy	NYSE: YGE
THURSDAY
Accenture	NYSE: CAN
Adaptive Medias	Nasdaq: ADTM
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics	Nasdaq: BCLI
Calithera Biosciences	Nasdaq: CALA
Cara Therapeutics	Nasdaq: CARA
Commercial Metals	NYSE: CMC
ConAgra Foods	NYSE: CAG
Cosi	Nasdaq: COSI
DGSE Companies	Nasdaq: DGSE
FibroGen	Nasdaq: FGEN
Fred’s	Nasdaq: FRED
GameStop	NYSE: GME
Gevo	Nasdaq: GEVO
Global Sources	Nasdaq: GSOL
Interphase	Nasdaq: INPH
Leatt	Nasdaq: LEAT
Lululemon Athletica	Nasdaq: LULU
Marathon Patent	Nasdaq: MARA
Minerva Neurosciences	Nasdaq: NERV
Newtek Business Services	Nasdaq: NEWT
Nova LifeStyle	Nasdaq: NVFY
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals	NYSE: NBY
NTN Buzztime	NYSE: NTN
NV5 Holdings	Nasdaq: NVEE
Oxford Industries	NYSE: OXM
Restoration Hardware	NYSE: RH
Scholastic	Nasdaq: SCHL
Signet Jewelers	NYSE: SIG
STR Holdings	Nasdaq: STRI
voxeljet	NYSE: VJET
Winnebago Industries	NYSE: WGO
World Point Terminals	NYSE: WPT
FRIDAY
Capstone	Nasdaq: CAPC
Carnival	NYSE: CCL
Chinacache Int’l	Nasdaq: CCIH
Exceed Co.	NYSE: EDS
Finish Line	Nasdaq: FINL
Medical Transcription Billing	Nasdaq: MTBC
MOL Global	Nasdaq: MOLG
Natuzzi SpA	NYSE: NTZ
Perfect World	Nasdaq: PWRD

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.