Wall Street Greek: TODAY’S MARKET – The Factors Driving Stocks

Mixed news has stocks confused today. The good news is that Markit Economics reports the euro-zone economy is improving. The PMI Composite Index for the euro-zone improved to 54.1, up from 53.3 in February. It is a 46-month high for the measure, and component measures for services and manufacturing each increased similarly. That is great news for Europe, and a stable global environment is good news for us as well. Now the bad news: a slight inflation signal was received today in the Core CPI data point, and inflation is the last thing investors want to see sign of, as it could force the Fed to act sooner and faster. Rest easy though, as it was ever so slight and market tensions from pre-Fed are still releasing stocks to the upside.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Today’s Stock Market

Sector Security	03-24-15 AM
Vanguard S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO)	-0.2%
iShares Dow Jones (NYSE: IYY)	-0.2%
Fidelity NASDAQ ETF (Nasdaq: ONEQ)	-0.1%
ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL)	-0.5%
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (NYSE: URE)	-0.5%
ProShares Ultra Oil (NYSE: UCO)	+0.6%
WisdomTree US$ Bullish (NYSE: USDU)	+0.3%
iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury (NYSE: TLT)	+0.4%

Economic Reports

We included Monday’s data because we have not yet reported them to followers who might not otherwise see them. Existing Home Sales ran at an annual pace of 4.88 million in February, up from 4.82 million in January but below economists’ expectations for 4.94 million. Yesterday, in my report What’s Good for Citigroup (NYSE: C) is Fantastic for Real Estate, I noted that as the major mortgage lenders meet difficult Fed capital requirements, they are gaining flexibility to lend more. I expect the key knot to the housing market, tight lending, is being untied now.

New Home Sales were reported this morning running at an annual pace of 539K, and January’s data was revised higher as well. Economists were expecting the pace to reach 462K in February, so this is fantastic news. In fact, it’s the best pace since 2008. Prices moved higher by 4%, as there is not enough supply on the market; neither of new homes nor existing homes. However, the lending situation is improving as I suggested and the economy is as well, so look for the housing recovery to gain steam this year and next.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a bit hot at 0.2% for the Core CPI data point, which excludes food and energy pricing. I believe this data point was the key reason for the slow U.S. open today. We must not have inflation, or the Fed will be forced to act sooner than it wants to and faster than it plans to. The irony here is that the dollar would give way if there were signs of inflation, and that also clears the way for rate hikes.

Redbook’s data showed a pickup in weekly same-store sales. Sales were higher by 2.8%, after marking 2.7% last week and 2.6% for the longest while before. It may be that lower gasoline prices are finally feeling anchored to American consumers and also that they are now spending more money.

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expect	Actual
MONDAY
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	-0.10*	0.15	-0.11
Existing Home Sales	4.82 M	4.94 M	4.88 M
Fed’s Mester Speaks
Fed’s Williams Speaks
Fed’s Fischer Speaks
Greek PM Meets w/ Merkel
TUESDAY
Consumer Price Index	-0.7%	+0.2%	0.2%
-Core CPI	+0.2%	+0.1%	0.2%
New Home Sales	500K*	462K	539K
FHFA House Price Index	0.7%*	0.5%	0.3%
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash	54.3	54.7	55.3
Richmond Fed Index	0	2
Redbook Store Sales	2.7%		2.8%
Bullard Speaks
Senate Committee Regional Banking

EPS Reports

It’s certainly not a busy day on the corporate earnings front as we approach the start of Q1 earnings season. Still, some retailers and consumer products companies are still trickling in, like Movado (NYSE: MOV) and Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK). The most interesting name on the wire in my opinion is Steelcase (NYSE: SCS), a company I once covered as an analyst. Look to its report for signs of corporate spending and broader corporate health.

EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
TUESDAY
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: AMPH
Christopher & Banks	NYSE: CBK
Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: CYCC
Dipexium Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: DPRX
E Commerce China Dangdang	NYSE: DANG
G-III Apparel Group	Nasdaq: GIII
GenVec	Nasdaq: GNVC
H.B. Fuller	NYSE: FUL
HD Supply	NYSE: HDS
IHS Inc.	NYSE: HIS
Intellicheck Mobilisa	NYSE: IDN
McCormick & Co.	NYSE: MKC
Movado	NYSE: MOV
NephroGenex	NYSE: NRX
Sonic	Nasdaq: SONC
Steelcase	NYSE: SCS
WSI Industries	Nasdaq: WSCI

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