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Tuesday, August 26, 2014

TUESDAY’S MARKET: Yellen Yanks It

Janet Yellen
We have deciphered the market movers for you today and see the most important as Janet Yellen. Her speech from last Friday continues to boost stocks, as no matter how good the economic data is, the market feels no rate hike threat. The Russia/Ukraine event continues to threaten, though, so keep a bead on the newswire at all times.

You’ll also likely enjoy: In Epic Battle of Yellen vs. Putin, the Champ Takes Round 1

U.S. Markets

Market ETF
8-26 Noon
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+0.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+0.3%
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+0.1%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
+0.6%
iShares US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)
+0.3%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
+0.1%
PowerShares DB US$  Bullish (NYSE: UUP)
-0.0%
PIMCO Total Return ETF (NYSE: BOND)
+0.0%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST (NYSE: VXX)
+1.1%

Stocks continue to benefit from Janet Yellen’s supportive speech of last Friday. She owns this market, and I expect for the next 1 to 3 months, with only Russia threatening gains. Data continues strong, but good news is good news again thanks to the Fed’s focus on labor market slack and no threat of faster interest rate hikes near-term.

International Markets

EUROPE
%
ASIA/PACIFIC
%
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)
+0.4%
Precidian MAXIS Nikkei (NYSE: NKY)
-0.3%
iShares MSCI UK (NYSE: EWU)
-0.2%
SPDR S&P China (NYSE: GXC)
-0.2%
iShares MSCI France (NYSE: EWQ)
+1.2%
iShares Asia 50 (NYSE: AIA)
-0.0%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)
+0.8%
iShares MSCI S. Korea (NYSE: EWY)
+0.9%
Global X FTSE Greece (NYSE: GREK)
+1.3%
iPath MSCI India (NYSE: INP)
+0.0%

Europe was mostly higher, save the U.K., which is about to lose all the tax income it receives from Scotland, as the UK region looks to independence. Surprisingly, Europe seems hopeful about the Russian Ukrainian meeting today, but I’m not. Sell this strength, especially in the volatile Greek security (Nasdaq: GREK).

Economic Data

TUESDAY’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point
Prior
Expected
Actual
TUESDAY



Putin Meets w/ Poroshenko



0.4%
0.3%
+0.4%
-0.3%
+0.1%
-0.2%
-1.3%

+0.6%
-Year-to-Year Pace
+3.8%

+4.2%
+3.7%

+4.0%
90.3
89.5
92.4
114.7

122.8
7.0
8.0
12
2.7%
5.1%
22.6%
-Ex-Transportation
3.0%
0.4%
-0.8%

With such an astounding increase in durable goods orders, you might have expected the market to be skyrocketing. However, the figure was greatly skewed by transportation goods orders. When excluding those high-ticket goods, durables orders actually decreased slightly. Richmond Fed data offered a positive support for the manufacturing sector though, with its improved reading.

Confidence measures improved greatly in this latest read, with both the Consumer Confidence measure reported today and the Investor Sentiment figure sharply higher. Things are getting better; it’s undeniable at this point. You can feel it in the streets even, and consumers and investors are expressing it.

Home price data showed further decline in home prices at the S&P Case Shiller reading. Remember, though, that S&P is a day late and a dollar short, reporting its data for June at the start of September. In June, we were coming out of a tough winter and home prices were feeling the effects of that. I would use this weakness as a reason to trade the homebuilders long here. Use the SPDR Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) for some uplift for the next 1 to 3 months until interest rates become an issue again.

Commodity Markets (12:00 PM ET)

United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
+0.5%
iPath SP Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)
+0.6%
U.S. Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)
-0.1%
U.S. Gasoline (NYSE: UGA)
+0.4%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
+0.6%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
+1.6%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)
+0.5%
iPath DJ UBS Industrial Metals (NYSE: JJM)
+0.4%
Teucrium Corn ETF (NYSE: CORN)
-1.2%
Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSE: WEAT)
-0.9%
Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSE: SOYB)
-0.6%
iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa (NYSE: NIB)
-0.3%
iPath DJ-UBS Sugar (NYSE: SGG)
+1.5%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.
+1.4%
CME Lumber
-1.4%
CME Live Cattle
+0.2%

As the U.S. begins surveillance flights over Syria, in preparation for the bombing of the Islamic State enemy stationed there, oil prices are on the rise. We cannot attribute any of the day’s commodity price action to the dollar, as it has held about steady. Rather, geopolitical issues are once again leading capital cautiously into position. Gold is higher as well, with the GLD security up along with the miners.

Stock Activity

The day’s EPS list highlights data from Best Buy, which disappointed investors and is trading down 5.6% at the noon hour. The market is abuzz today though about the Burger King (NYSE: BKC) plan to potentially relocate to Canada so as to acquire Tim Horton’s (NYSE: THI) without objection from Canada. Well, the idea has drawn plenty of objection from American politicians, some of which are calling for the boycott of the King. I may have more to say on the subject if time avails today. I see the deal as a necessary one for Burger King to guard market share.

EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
TUESDAY

Analog Devices
NYSE: ADI
Aruba Networks
Nasdaq: ARUN
Best Buy
NYSE: BBY
Bob Evans Farms
Nasdaq: BOBE
Culp
NYSE: CFI
Daktronics
Nasdaq: DAKT
Doral Financial
NYSE: DRL
DSW Inc.
NYSE: DSW
Dycom Industries
NYSE: DY
Golar LNG
Nasdaq: GLNG
Heico
NYSE: HEI
Movado Group
NYSE: MOV
Nimble Storage
Nasdaq: NMBL
Regis
NYSE: RGS
Sanderson Farms
Nasdaq: SAFM
Smith & Wesson
Nasdaq: SWHC
Solera
NYSE: SLH
Taomee
Nasdaq: TAOM
Tech Data
Nasdaq: TECD
TiVo
Nasdaq: TIVO
Trina Solar
NYSE: TSL
TubeMogul
Nasdaq: TUBE

TODAY’S MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
BIGGEST GAINERS
% Gain
Image Sensing Systems (Nasdaq: ISNS)
+36%
Vicon Industries (NYSE: VII)
+37%
China Yida Holding (Nasdaq: CNYD)
+32%
Kite Pharma (Nasdaq: KITE)
+19%
Village Bank & Trust (Nasdaq: VBFC)
+18%
Digital Ally (Nasdaq: DGLY)
+18%
Arrowhead Research (Nasdaq: ARWR)
+14%
China HGS Real Estate (Nasdaq: HGSH)
+12%
TSR, Inc. (Nasdaq: TSRI)
+12%
Cover-All Technology (Nasdaq: COVR)
+8%
BIGGEST LOSERS
% Drop
Adept Technology (Nasdaq: ADEP)
-20%
Doral Financial (NYSE: DRL)
-18%
Xueda Education (NYSE: XUE)
-15%
Real Goods Solar (Nasdaq: RGSE)
-11%
Vringo (Nasdaq: VRNG)
-15%
iKang Healthcare (Nasdaq: KANG)
-12%
NetSol Technologies (Nasdaq: NTWK)
-7%
Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL)
-8%
Daily Journal (Nasdaq: DJCO)
-6%
Advaxis (Nasdaq: ADXS)
-6%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Monday, August 25, 2014

Week Ahead – What’s Good is Good Again

good news
This pre-Labor Day period offers a quiet earnings front, but plenty of economic data to keep us busy as we prepare the car for the beach. Much depends on Vladimir Putin this week, since Janet Yellen quelled all concern regarding the Fed’s interest rate plan. Economic data may continue to astound the market this week, but good news will be good news, at least until the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is reported on Friday. That could undermine all confidence in the Fed if it shows things getting pricey. Vladimir Putin deserves his own column here, as he is influencing markets more than most other macro factors of late. Recent scares in Ukraine have set capital running into treasuries and affected the price of commodities. It’ll be interesting to see what more he may do for Ukraine if the Kiev government clamps down hard on separatists, who are now better armed thanks to Vlad.

See also: Gold – The Week Ahead

5-day chart
5-Day Chart at Yahoo Finance


Last week’s market hinged on overwhelmingly strong economic data matched against the dovish speech of Fed Chair Yellen and the advances of Russia in Ukraine on Friday. Basically, interest rate fear stoked by the FOMC meeting minutes release and the strong economic data flow was quelled by Yellen’s focus on labor market slack in the economy and the flight to safety fueled by Putin’s Russia. The flight to safety helps, believe it or not, because it pushes interest rates lower. However, it’s only helpful for as long as Putin doesn’t threaten the U.S. economy or dollar.

Security
Last Wk
YTD
TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
+1.8%
+7.9%
+19.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
+2.1%
+2.7%
+13.4%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
+1.7%
+12.6%
+29.2%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
-1.8%
+6.1%
-8.7%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)
-1.5%
-1.2%
-8.9%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)
-0.2%
+4.3%
+4.7%
PowerShares US $ Bull (NYSE: UUP)
+1.1%
+2.0%
-0.2%

The Week Ahead


The impending holiday is of no matter, as the week ahead brings a heavy load of economic data to mull through. The market will continue to note robust economic growth, but after Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole, data may not impact stocks negatively for a while. In other words, good news is good news again.

New home sales results could continue last week’s fueling of housing stocks, as Monday leads off with the important measure of both the economy and the housing market. Then, as the week progresses, real estate enthusiasts will want to check in on home price measures and pending home sales of existing homes.

On the manufacturing front, we get the important durable goods orders data; a big increase is expected, but you’ll want to look to the figure ex-transportation for a true read. The top line figure is too volatile month to month due to the high ticket prices of durable goods in the transportation space (planes, trains and automobiles). Several regional and other national reports will add color to manufacturing this week as well.

Two consumer confidence measures and one investor sentiment figure will be released this week, so it’ll be interesting to see how the consumer feels as we exit the slow summer season into back-to-school and the holiday shopping. Personal spending data on Friday will offer further insight into actual consumer activity. But this report will get extra scrutiny because it carries with it the Fed’s most favored inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index; fear not though, as not much price increase is expected by economists. We’ll need to see that, or else new found market confidence in the Fed may be immediately lost. GDP gets a revision this week as well, and it’s got a lot of room to be reduced from the initial reporting of 4.0% growth in Q2; economists are looking for the same though this time around.

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point
Prior
Expected
MONDAY


0.12
0.20
61.0
62.0
12.7
13.5
406K
430K
TUESDAY


Putin Meets w/ Poroshenko


0.4%
0.3%
-0.3%
+0.1%
-1.3%

-Year-to-Year Pace
+3.8%

+3.7%

90.9
89.5
114.7

7.0
8.0
0.7%
5.1%
-Ex-Transportation
0.8%
0.4%
WEDNESDAY


+1.4%



-Crude Oil Inventory
-4.5 MB

-Gasoline Inventory
+0.6 MB

THURSDAY


+4.0%
+4.0%
-1.1%
+0.5%
9
9
298K
300K
36.6

+88 bcf



FRIDAY


+0.4%
+0.3%
-Outlays
+0.4%
+0.2%
-Core PCE Price Index
+0.1%
+0.1%
52.6
56.4
79.2
80.5

In this week heading into the Labor Day holiday weekend, we should not expect much from corporate earnings, especially as we approach Friday. Still, important news will come from Renren, The Gap and Best Buy.

 EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
MONDAY

Adept Technology
Nasdaq: ADEP
Aeroflex Holding
NYSE: ARX
Avid Technology
Nasdaq: AVID
CNinsure
Nasdaq: CISG
Collectors Universe
Nasdaq: CLCT
Corinthian Colleges
Nasdaq: COCO
dELiA*s
Nasdaq: DLIA
Dendreon
Nasdaq: DNDN
DHT Holding
NYSE: DHT
Fabrinet
NYSE: FN
Global Geophysical Services
Nasdaq: GEGSQ
Golar LNG
Nasdaq: GMLP
Iao Kun Group
Nasdaq: IKGH
ITT Educational Services
NYSE: ESI
OSI Systems
Nasdaq: OSIS
Premier
Nasdaq: PINC
Prospect Capital
Nasdaq: PSEC
Qihoo 360 Technology
Nasdaq: QIHU
Renren
Nasdaq: RENN
Xueda Education
NYSE: XUE
TUESDAY

Analog Devices
NYSE: ADI
Aruba Networks
Nasdaq: ARUN
Best Buy
NYSE: BBY
Bob Evans Farms
Nasdaq: BOBE
Culp
NYSE: CFI
Daktronics
Nasdaq: DAKT
Doral Financial
NYSE: DRL
DSW Inc.
NYSE: DSW
Dycom Industries
NYSE: DY
Golar LNG
Nasdaq: GLNG
Heico
NYSE: HEI
Movado Group
NYSE: MOV
Nimble Storage
Nasdaq: NMBL
Regis
NYSE: RGS
Sanderson Farms
Nasdaq: SAFM
Smith & Wesson
Nasdaq: SWHC
Solera
NYSE: SLH
Taomee
Nasdaq: TAOM
Tech Data
Nasdaq: TECD
TiVo
Nasdaq: TIVO
Trina Solar
NYSE: TSL
TubeMogul
Nasdaq: TUBE
WEDNESDAY

21Vianet
Nasdaq: VNET
Bally Technologies
NYSE: BYI
Bio-Reference Laboratories
Nasdaq: BRLI
Brown Shoe Co.
NYSE: BWS
CareDx
Nasdaq: CDNA
Casella Waste Systems
Nasdaq: CWST
Chico’s FAS
NYSE: CHS
Concurrent Computer
Nasdaq: CCUR
Donaldson Co.
NYSE: DCI
Eltek
Nasdaq: ELTK
Exa Corp.
NYSE: EXA
Express
Nasdaq: EXPR
Globe Specialty Metals
NYSE: GSM
Gordmans Stores
Nasdaq: GMAN
Greif
NYSE: GEF
GUESS?
NYSE: GES
Isle of Capri Casinos
Nasdaq: ISLE
KongZhong
NYSE: KZ
Lannett Co.
NYSE: LCI
North Atlantic Drilling
Nasdaq: NADL
Seadrill Partners
Nasdaq: SDLP
Standex Int’l
NYSE: SXI
Tiffany & Co.
NYSE: TIF
Tilly’s
Nasdaq: TLYS
Violin Memory
Nasdaq: VMEM
Williams-Sonoma
NYSE: WSM
Workday
Nasdaq: WDAY
THURSDAY

Abercrombie & Fitch
NYSE: ANF
Amira Nature Foods
Nasdaq: ANFI
Avago Technologies
Nasdaq: AVGO
Bona Film Group
Nasdaq: BONA
China Cord Blood
NYSE: CO
Constellium
Nasdaq: CSTM
Coty
Nasdaq: COTY
Destination XL Group
Nasdaq: DXLG
Dollar General
NYSE: DG
Edap Tms SA
Nasdaq: EDAP
Fred’s
Nasdaq: FRED
Genesco
NYSE: GCO
Jiayuan.com Int’l
Nasdaq: DATE
Liberty Tax
NYSE: TAX
Net 1 UEPS Technologies
Nasdaq: UEPS
OmniVision Technologies
Nasdaq: OVTI
Pacific Sunwear of California
Nasdaq: PSUN
Pall Corp.
NYSE: PLL
Paul Mueller
Nasdaq: MUEL
Rally Software Development
Nasdaq: RALY
Sears Hometown & Outlet
Nasdaq: SHOS
Ship Finance Int’l
NYSE: SFL
Signet Jewelers
NYSE: SIG
Splunk
Nasdaq: SPLK
StealthGas
Nasdaq: GASS
Veeva Systems
Nasdaq: VEEV
FRIDAY

Big Lots
NYSE: BIG

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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