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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

GLD – Sell Any Gold Strength on the Fed Today

If the Federal Reserve’s announcement today offers the mild tone I am expecting and if the setup of the last several days drives an upward move in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), I would use it to sell stakes. While my long-term perspective remains bullish for gold, I see near-term downside that traders need not bear. The writing is on the wall in big bold print and it is evident in the chart of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) as well. No matter what the Federal Reserve does in its latest monetary policy announcement, it is headed toward raising interest rates. The dollar has already strengthened significantly against some currencies, but not against the broader base. See the full report here.

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How to Play Stocks Around the Fed Today

Last week I published an article entitled Buy this Trough as the Latest Fed Scare is Unfounded. I continue to expect the Federal Reserve’s FOMC monetary policy decision and press conference to reflect the mild message conveyed by Janet Yellen in her Jackson Hole speech and for stocks to move higher. However, the Fed Forecasts, which will be published today, have sunk stocks in the past and continue to threaten, though perhaps to a lesser extent now that they are better understood. Passive investors in the broader market ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) might want to hedge bets a bit. This article discusses tools for hedging event risk. Rather than placing a long or short bet on the SPY today, I suggest investors hold both call and put options to bet on volatility in the security, whether it move higher or lower. Your risk comes with the lack of a move in the SPY, but if the ETF rises or falls significantly, you should overcome option costs for profit today in my view. Of course, this trade offers lower upside than a naked long or short position. See the full report here.

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Tuesday, September 16, 2014

GOLD - Waiting on Russian Response to EU

The EU announced that a new round of sanctions against Russia would take hold starting Friday. Because of the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the sanctions were held up as Europe debated what to do. The final conclusion of the group of nations was to implement the sanctions despite the new peace in Ukraine, but to review and/or revoke them in less than a month’s time depending on progress in Ukraine. Europe’s mistrust of Russia is evident in the way it went about this, and now the ball is in Russia’s court. It seems that what was meant by the EU to be a power play against Russia has exposed its division and weakness. I believe this leaves Russia more likely to now test the European resolve by countering these latest sanctions with some harsh Russian rebuttal. Such an action would serve to disrupt the euro, lay warning to the dollar and boost the price of gold. Much depends on the patience of Russia and its next move. See full report here. Article should interest SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), Direxion Daily Gold Bull 3X (NYSE: NUGT), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).

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