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Friday, March 06, 2015

FRIDAY’S MARKET – Good Jobs News is Bad Market News

buy and sell
This day will without a doubt be dictated by the most important economic report in terms of market following. The monthly Employment Situation Report certainly deserves the attention today, as it came in astoundingly strong in a period that could have easily shown weakness on bad weather. Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate improved far beyond expectations, which is good news about the American economy. However, that is bad news for investors, because it seems to push the U.S. Federal Reserve closer to interest rate hikes. We cover the market daily at our stock market blog at a level unmatched.

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Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Sector Security
3-5-15
YTD
TTM
Vanguard S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO)
+0.1%
2.5%
14.1%
iShares Dow Jones (NYSE: IYY)
+0.2%
2.8%
13.1%
Fidelity NASDAQ  ETF (Nasdaq: ONEQ)
+0.4%
6.0%
15.8%
ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL)
-0.2%
1.3%
-23.9%
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (NYSE: URE)
+0.6%
2.1%
39.3%
ProShares Ultra Oil (NYSE: UCO)
-2.1%
-14.4%
-75.5%
WisdomTree US$  Bullish (NYSE: USDU)
+0.4%
3.3%
15.0%
iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury (NYSE: TLT)
-0.1%
-0.4
21.9%

Economic Report Schedule


Economists and market strategists alike will be focused on one data point Friday. The most widely followed economic report has been released, the monthly Employment Situation Report. It was better than expected for the month of February, but remember, good news is bad news now because of how it affects the Fed’s rate plans.

Nonfarm Payrolls showed job creation of 295K for the frigid month, far better than what was expected at 230K. Though January’s payroll figure was revised lower to 239K; December was unchanged above 300K. Private nonfarm payrolls also beat expectations, marking 288K jobs created versus expectations for 225K. Again the prior month was revised lower to 237K. The unemployment rate improved to 5.5%, where economists thought it would improve to 5.6%, from January’s 5.7%. Labor force participation deteriorated, though, so there will be the usual debate about whether the unemployment rate really tells the story.

Nonetheless, the jobs data was clearly positive, where a negative report could have been blamed on the weather. While revisions may later come, today investors have to contend with the fact that the economy appears to be doing better than expected. That means the Federal Reserve could be backed into a corner and forced to raise interest rates sooner than even they might like to, given recent dollar muscle building. As a result of the super strong report, stock futures moved lower before the open and it looks like the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) will have a slow start to the day.

ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE

Economic Data Point
Prior
Expected
Actual
FRIDAY






-Nonfarm Payrolls
239K*
230K
295K
-Private Payrolls
237K*
225K
288K
-Unemployment Rate
5.7%
5.6%
5.5%
$-45.6 B*
$-41.8 B
$-41.8 B
$14.8 B
$15.0 B
3 PM ET
 *Revised

EPS Report Schedule


Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is being added to the Dow Jones Industrial average, which I see as a positive for Apple and the Dow. For Apple, funds that track the Dow must now buy Apple, and so the stock rose 1.6% to start the day. The Dow, and the SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA) benefit because it is a price-weighted index, and Apple is sure to move the index with its superior price action to the company it replaces, AT&T (NYSE: T). The earnings day includes Staples (Nasdaq: SPLS) and Big Lots (NYSE: BIG).

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
FRIDAY

Big Lots
NYSE: BIG
Cheetah Mobile
Nasdaq: CMCM
Chimerix
Nasdaq: CMRX
Foot Locker
NYSE: FL
Furmanite
NYSE: FRM
Global Sources
Nasdaq: GSOL
Gramercy Property Trust
NYSE: GPT
KVH Industries
Nasdaq: KVHI
Monroe Capital
Nasdaq: MRCC
New Home Co.
Nasdaq: NWHM
Noah Holdings
Nasdaq: NOAH
OFS Capital
NYSE: OFS
Southcross Energy Partners
NYSE: SXE
Staples
Nasdaq: SPLS
Tribune Media
Nasdaq: TRCO
Vantage Drilling
NYSE: VTG
Verso
NYSE: VRS

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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How the ECB Economic Forecast Clears the Path for U.S. Markets

The key to the U.S. market Thursday emanated from overseas, and I believe helps to clear a path for U.S. stocks to rise moving forward. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus, the world’s last divided city, offered a key tidbit from its highly publicized activities. The ECB’s economic forecast is critical to the U.S. market because of the interrelation between the dollar and euro and the U.S. Fed’s interest in it. The news was good for Europe, but how does that translate into American English? See the full report here. Article interests SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV), iShares Germany (NYSE: EWG), Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSE: GREK).

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long SPY and GREK. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Thursday, March 05, 2015

THURSDAY’S MARKET – ECB Economic Forecasts Are Most Important Today

Wall Street
Thursday is all about the ECB and the release of its latest economic growth and inflation forecasts. More important than the details of its bond buying program, this data will offer investors insight into how long the program might run (through September 2016 expected). If the euro-area economy is improving as I expect it is, we may start to see the unraveling of the dollar trade. That means higher ground for gold and other commodities, though oil remains pressured by the supply issue. Stay tuned to Wall Street Greek, as I’ll be issuing a report on the energy market and the supply issue later today.

Market Blogger
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Thursday’s Market


Security
3-4-15
YTD
TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
-0.4%
2.3%
14.2%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
-0.6%
2.0%
13.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)
-0.4%
5.4%
20.4%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
-0.3%
0.9%
-10.7%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)
+3.1%
-5.6%
-51.6%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)
+0.1%
1.5%
6.9%
PowerShares DB US $ Bullish (NYSE: UUP)
+0.5%
4.8%
18.2%

Economic Reports


Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting weighs heavy on markets, and certainly markets hinged to the dollar. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, but investors are keyed on what the ECB has to say about its quantitative easing plans. More details are expected about the 1.1 billion euro bond buying plan, which is expected to run at 60 billion euros of assets per month.

The ECB will also issue its latest economic growth and inflation forecasts, and this data could be what matters most today. Lately, we’ve noted an uptick in the European broader economy and investors have looked toward that for reason to buy Europe sooner rather than later. If we see improvement in the EU economy, the dollar may have already marked its top, and a shift could begin for euro strengthening. This would mark an unraveling of the most popular trade today, and it would affect all commodity markets and the shares of many U.S. internationals beaten back by the strong dollar. Keep your eye on EU growth and its inflation forecasts. Note also that China revised lower its GDP expectations for 2015 to a still relatively strong 7% rate.

Economic data continues to weigh heavily Thursday, with several more preludes to Friday’s monthly jobs report offering some reason for speculation today. Challenger’s Job-Cuts Report, which offers information about announced corporate layoffs month-to-month, showed a modest decrease for February to 50,579, down from 53,041 in January. The measure is running somewhat hot now, and the reason is clear. Challenger reports that 38% of the year’s layoffs have come due to lower oil prices. Obviously, you can expect more of the same in the foreseeable future.

Monthly Productivity & Costs were reported, with the prior month’s data revised sharply higher, offering a positive economic note today. The revision to the prior month’s result makes the current month, which was reported about in line, look good now. Jobless claims edged higher.

THURSDAY’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE

Economic Data Point
Prior
Expected
Actual
THURSDAY









53,041

50,579
313K

320K
-3.4%
+0.2%

+3.9%*
-2.3%
-2.2%
-Unit Labor Costs
-1.0%*
+3.1%
+3.1%
42.7


-219 bcf


44.1

43.9



 *Revised

Earnings Reports

The day’s earnings schedule features Costco (Nasdaq: COST), one of America’s most important retailers. The day also brings the monthly chain store sales for February for many of America’s retailers. However, you will not find the monthly sales of its most important sellers, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) in that data. So be careful of reading too much into the news of the marginal players.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company
Ticker
THURSDAY

51job
Nasdaq: JOBS
Abraxas Petroleum
Nasdaq: AXAS
Achillion Pharmaceuticals
Nasdaq: ACHN
Addus Homecare
Nasdaq: ADUS
Alon USA energy
NYSE: ALJ
Ares Management
Nasdaq: ARES
Bio-Reference Laboratories
Nasdaq: BRLI
Blackrock Kelso Capital
Nasdaq: BKCC
Canadian Solar
Nasdaq: CSIQ
Central European Media
Nasdaq: CETV
Checkpoint Systems
NYSE: CKP
Chembio Diagnostics
Nasdaq: CEMI
Chesapeake Utilities
NYSE: CPK
China New Borun
Nasdaq: BORN
Ciena
Nasdaq: CIEN
City Office REIT
NYSE: CIO
Cooper Cos.
NYSE: COO
Costco Wholesale
Nasdaq: COST
CTC Media
Nasdaq: CTCM
Demand Media
NYSE: DMD
Diamond Foods
Nasdaq: DMND
Dot Hill Systems
Nasdaq: HILL
E Commerce China Dangdang
Nasdaq: DANG
Emergent BioSolutions
NYSE: EBS
Energy Recovery
Nasdaq: ERII
Esterline Technologies
NYSE: ESL
Exceed Co.
NYSE: EDS
Fidus Investment
Nasdaq: FDUS
Finisar
Nasdaq: FNSR
Forestar Group
NYSE: FOR
Fresh Market
NYSE: TFM
Galena Biopharma
Nasdaq: GALE
Global Eagle Entertainment
NYSE: ENT
Gray Television
NYSE: GTN
HCI Group
NYSE: HCI
ID Systems
Nasdaq: IDSY
Independence Contract Drilling
NYSE: ICD
IRIDEX
Nasdaq: IRIX
Jiayuan.com Int’l
Nasdaq: DATE
Jones Soda
Nasdaq: JSDA
Joy Global
NYSE: JOY
Kroger
NYSE: KR
Ladder Capital
Nasdaq: LADR
Liberty Tax
NYSE: TAX
Marcus & Millichap
NYSE: MMI
Martha Stewart
NYSE: MSO
Methode Electronics
NYSE: MEI
National Western Life
Nasdaq: NWLI
Navidea Biopharmaceuticals
Nasdaq: NAVB
Orion Engineered Carbons
NYSE: OEC
Osiris Therapeutics
Nasdaq: OSIR
Paramount Group
Nasdaq: PGRE
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals
Nasdaq: PPHM
Perficient
Nasdaq: PRFT
Prothena
Nasdaq: PRTA
Quiksilver
NYSE: ZQK
Resolute Energy
NYSE: REN
Rhino Resource
NYSE: RNO
Safeguard Scientifics
NYSE: SFE
Sanchez Production Partners
NYSE: SPP
Shanda Games
Nasdaq: GAME
Skullcandy
Nasdaq: SKUL
Superior Industries
NYSE: SUP
Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals
Nasdaq: TTPH
The Chefs’ Warehouse
Nasdaq: CHEF
Thor Industries
NYSE: THO
Trecora Resources
Nasdaq: TREC
U.S. Physical Therapy
Nasdaq: USPH
US Concrete
Nasdaq: USCR
Violin Memory
Nasdaq: VMEM
Winthrop Realty Trust
NYSE: FUR
Wuxi Pharmatech Cayman
NYSE: WX
Youku Tudou
Nasdaq: YOKU
YY
NYSE: YY

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long SPY. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Phillies

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